2017 NFL Draft Preview

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2017 NFL Draft Preview

Postby hagrin » Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:28 am

As this thread evolves, we'll get more specific on players / team needs, but let's start as we always do with some basics.

1) What teams need QBs?

This is where you have to start every year when projecting the first round. Here's the possible landing spots for QBs in the 1st round -

#1 CLE, #2 SF, #3 CHI, #4 JAX (has Bort's leash run out?), #6 NYJ, #7 LA Chargers (if they trade Rivers), #10 BUF (if they let Taylor walk), #12 CLE, #13 ARI (doubt they spend a 1st on a QB with other pressing needs), #25 HOU (very unlikely due to Brock's cap hit / Savage)

2) What QBs have first round grades / talent?

It's early in the process, but I think the only 3 QBs that could *possibly* go in the first round are Trubisky (UNC), Watson (Clemson) and Kizer (ND). Now, I'm on record as saying I wouldn't draft Kizer in the first round, but I'm willing to keep the idea open that he may go in the first round. However, there are two things that I believe are true - a bunch of teams need immediate QB help (at least 4) and that there isn't really enough 1st round talent at the QB position in this draft that satisfies that demand. Therefore, I think you will see a few QBs go much higher than their grade indicates they should go and that the competition for those assets will be increased.

If CLE wants to draft a QB, and they desperately need a QB since I don't think Kessler is the long term solution, I don't think they can wait till the 12th pick. Therefore, their only real option is probably to take a QB at #1 (seems unlikely since no QB has an elite grade), trade back to around the 6th or 7th pick or not take a QB in the first round again which might be fine in this instance since the value of their picks doesn't really align with the draft grades of the QB prospects. TL;DR - I don't think the Browns end up with a QB in the 1st round again. Yeesh.

Dark horse sleeper to somehow end up in the first round? Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech) who many thought would be a 3rd day guy seems like he's about ready to shoot right up draft boards. His arm talent is going to be on full display during the draft process and I think the stigma of Texas Tech system QBs isn't going to be enough to hold him down. I think around the 3rd round is appropriate for Mahomes, but it would not shock me if he has a meteoric rise.

3) What RBs may go in the first round?

Fournette (LSU) and Dalvin Cook (FSU). Even though I have seen some early mocks with Cook going slightly before Fournette, I think Fournette will go before Cook and I think there's some recency bias at play with Cook's current draft projections vs Fournette's current draft projections.
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Preview

Postby hagrin » Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:15 am

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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Preview

Postby hagrin » Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:37 am

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/mock-draf ... iah/335600 - Jeremiah's 2.0.

Some things of note -

1) He has the Giants taking a QB. I don't think that happens.
2) He doesn't have Kizer in the 1st round. I've been pounding the drum that Kizer isn't a 1st round guy, but I do feel like the Bills at 10 may take him. Just seems like a very Bills-like thing to do.
3) Cook to the Colts is a great fit, especially with the lack of OL talent this year in the 1st round.
4) I'm starting to wonder about Fournette some in the modern NFL if he can't really play on 3rd down. He has Fournette going 6th to the Jets, I just think that's too high.
5) Lattimore going 2nd seems high to me too, SF needs so much help, I don't know if taking him second makes much sense.

After some initial mock drafts putting a bunch of QBs super high, which is a tell tale sign they are making stuff up, we're seeing the mock drafts line up closer to the actual talent of the players.
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Preview

Postby hagrin » Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:52 pm

Some "sleepers" that might be better than guys drafted before them at the same position -

Joe Mixon (RB - Oklahoma) - off the field issues will drag him down for sure, but he might be one of the best RBs in the draft.
https://twitter.com/GrahamBarfield/stat ... 5449713664
Graham Barfield ‏@GrahamBarfield 3h3 hours ago
More
Almost 9.1% of Joe Mixon's carries in 2016 went for 20+ yards, which leads all RBs not only in the 2017 class -- but last year's class, too.


Chad Hansen - (WR - California)
https://twitter.com/Marcus_Mosher/statu ... 3905447936
Looks like very good speed, obviously very good at attacking the ball at the high point


We'll see how these guys test out at the Combine, but those are two names not in the first round that might be very good picks for some team.
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Re: 2017 NFL Draft Preview

Postby hagrin » Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:07 pm

Jason_OTC @Jason_OTC
So right now Im estimating that 9 teams will have $50M+ in cap space- Cle, SF, Ten, TB, NE, Jax, Was, Ind, and Chi


Something to keep in mind when you think about draft needs and how you can fill out your team via FA.
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